Published On Seeking Alpha: The Pantry Is Empty: The Pantry Inc. Is Overvalued And Overleveraged

The Pantry, Inc. (PTRY) has made numerous changes to the company and its operations, hired a new CEO, remodeled stores, and even attracted a modicum of activist investor attention. Yet the company continues to see a steady slide in EBITDA, uses all of its cash flow to service debt and spruce up its stores, and has leveraged up its balance sheet in the process to the point where the firm has little room for error. The Pantry appears to be an obvious short based on declining operating performance, high leverage, and management's apparent inability to stem the deterioration of both the business and the balance sheet.

To see the rest of the article go here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1988591-the-pantry-is-empty-the-pantry-inc-is-overvalued-and-overleveraged

As always, this is for your entertainment only, not investment advice.  Consult your advisors, do your own research, take your own risks.  I am just some dude spouting off over the interwebs.

Published on Seeking Alpha: Underperforming Olin Corporation Needs To Be Acquired

"Olin Corp. (OLN) reported fourth quarter 2013 earnings on Monday meeting analysts' estimates and tallying up record annual EBITDA of $424 million. While this is a notable achievement, management indicated first quarter EPS well below the consensus forecast and EBITDA for 2014 at best equal to 2013's performance. Meanwhile the company continues to laud itself for its increasing cash balance (up $143 million during 2013 to $308 million at the end of the year), continuing its 20 cent per share quarterly dividend (which has not been raised since 1999), and repurchasing 1.5 million shares during the course of 2013 (1.9% of shares outstanding for perhaps $40 million or 10% of EBITDA). Based on Monday's closing price, the company trades at EV/EBITDA of approximately 6 times and has done so for some time. Despite their multimillion dollar compensation, management together with the board owns a trivial amount of the company giving them little incentive to do much beside collect their pay and options grants. Olin is ripe for an activist to shake things up or a buyer to emerge to unlock the company's value."

The above is an excerpt from my recently published article on Seeking Alpha.  To read the whole thing, go here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1980331-underperforming-olin-corporation-needs-to-be-acquired?source=yahoo

Author's note: Now that I am no longer subject to the numerous restrictions related to my prior employment, I have started trying new things professionally.  I submitted an article to Seeking Alpha which they selected for publishing as a "Small-Cap Insight."  I intend to split content in the future between this blog and Seeking Alpha, assuming they like my stuff enough to publish it.

As always, the linked article is for your entertainment only rather than investment advice.  Consult your advisors, do your own due diligence, take your own risks, and be careful with your money.  I am just some over-educated boob on the inter-tubes: what do I know?

High Yield Market Looking Overvalued And Underprotected

The high yield (AKA junk) bond market is a funny thing.  Everyone who invests in this asset class knows they are buying IOUs from higher risk issuers who offer extra interest and extra restrictions on what the issuer can do in order to compensate the investors for the higher risk.  Sometimes investors are more concerned with the extra risk involved and sometimes they are more interested in the extra interest offered.  But relatively few junk investors seem to look beyond the rating and the yield, and almost all seem to have very short memories.  The junk market appears to me to be approaching an extreme and I would caution anyone tempted to chase yield in this market to be very careful.

Mission: Refinance Completed - The Post Mortem

Relatively Painless Experience

As I mentioned in a prior post http://lifeinvestmentseverything.blogspot.com/2012/07/fun-with-housing-finance.html I have recently been going through a refinance on my home with www.boxhomeloans.com in order to swap an ARM for a 30 year fixed rate loan at what appear to be historically low interest rates.  The mortgage process is still time consuming and requires attention, but it is far less paper intensive than in years past.

Fun With Housing Finance

The Mechanics of Refinancing In a Mortgage Market Gone Crazy

As should be obvious to anyone watching the markets, mortgage rates have fallen to record lows once again.  Turmoil in equity markets, sovereign debt fears and probably expectations about central bank actions have continued to drive interest rates lower on a wide variety of fixed income instruments including agency mortgage backed securities (MBS).  For conforming mortgage loans, yields on MBS drive pricing and rates on loans.  However, the mortgage market is a bit of a mess in the wake of the real estate crash and the dissolution of a large part of the mortgage origination machinery in the last several years.  The silly-low rates being dangled in front of would-be borrowers come with a bunch of strings attached and if you do not meet the many requirements to qualify for the advertised rate you are likely to pay far more in rate/fees or simply be unable to borrow at all.  Since the list of requirements moves around not infrequently, potential borrowers who are on the edge will have a tough time figuring out if they qualify until they actually commit time, money and hair-pulling to an application.

Late last week I locked a rate to refinance my current mortgage.  I will now explore the whys, hows, and what has changed over time in the mortgage process.  I am lucky enough to comfortably meet the current requirements for receiving the advertised rate, so my comments will largely be confined to the so-called "conforming" mortgage market.